Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Transformação da educação médica: é possível formar um novo médico a partir de mudanças no método de ensino-aprendizagem?

As mudanças na formação dos profissionais médicos têm estado na pauta de discussão das escolas formadoras há algumas décadas. As principais tentativas concretizadas atêm-se, sobretudo, a mudanças metodológicas ou pedagógicas, com a reestruturação dos currículos a partir da inserção da aprendizagem baseada em problemas (ABP) como eixo estruturante. O modelo hegemônico é, ainda, a formação a partir de um currículo de formato tradicional, e a alternativa de mudança mais em voga passa, então, a ser a ABP. O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar esse método e as avaliações de seus resultados, de forma a compor um panorama da sua efetividade na busca do médico crítico, reflexivo e com responsabilidade social. Foi realizada revisão da literatura com busca bibliográfica nas bases SciELO (Scientific Eletronic Library Online), Pubmed (www.nlm.nih.gov) e BVS (Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde), tendo como critério de seleção os artigos publicados sobre o assunto nos últimos 20 anos. Os resultados apontam insuficiência da mudança pedagógica isolada como resposta a uma formação médica capaz de aliar competências técnicas e ético-humanísticas

Forecasting: Theory and Practice.

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases